Observational data is available back to 1850, though for any given location data may not go back that far. Berkeley Earth uses the UK Met Office’s HadSST3 ocean temperature record as the basis for its ocean temperatures. These temperature estimates use observations from around 30,000 land monitoring stations, as well as thousands of ships, buoys and other monitoring systems over the ocean. These were converted into annual average temperature anomalies relative to a 1951-1980 baseline period. Temperatures based on land and ocean observations were obtained from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project’s one-degree latitude by one-degree longitude gridded monthly average temperature fields (note: large file download). (Note: Users with laptops or other small screens may want to zoom out on their browsers for a better view of the map.) Methodology and data sources Clicking on the “home” symbol on the left will reset the interactive back to its default starting point. The past observed and future projected temperatures for each location can be downloaded by clicking on the “download csv” link. Specific locations can also be typed into the search bar in the upper left corner. Additionally, it shows how much warming is expected by 2100, relative to the baseline period. The sidebar indicates both how much warming has been experienced between the first 30 years of the record and the past decade. Both historical and future temperatures are shown relative to a 1951-1980 baseline period. An additional plot shows the future warming projected for that location under the four different RCP scenarios from 2000 through to 2100 – in purple, red, orange and yellow. How to use this mapĬlicking on any grid cell brings up a sidebar showing the historical temperature record for that location between 18, both by year (in white) and with a smoothed average using 10 years of data (in red). They range from the low-warming RCP2.6 scenario, which keeps global warming from the pre-industrial era to below 2C, up to a high-warming RCP8.5 scenario that would likely see global temperatures rise to above 4C. These four scenarios represent different possible future emission trajectories. The map overlay on the interactive above shows the amount of warming to expect in each grid cell based on future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed by climate scientists. RCP8.5 is a “very-high baseline” emission scenario brought about by rapid population growth, high energy… Read More RCP8.5: The RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) are scenarios of future concentrations of greenhouse gases and other forcings.
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